Alberta Wire July 25th, 2017

The spot power prices last week averaged $18.35/MWh, down $2.22/MWh from the previous week with temperatures closer to normal and good thermal (coal and gas) availability. Average demand last week was 9,238MW which is up over 10% vs. the same time period in 2016. Correspondingly, prices for July MTD averaged $20.76/MWh up 14% vs. July 2016.

AECO natural gas spot price was down again by $0.69/GJ due to an unexpected outage at the Clearwater 5 gas processing facility combined with an ongoing planned maintenance outage at Clearwater.

If you are interested in the longer term outlook for power demand in Alberta, the AESO has released their 2017 Long-Term Outlook (LTO) on their website. The AESO has developed several load and generation scenarios including partial coal to gas conversion, full coal to gas conversion and no coal to gas conversion.  They have reflected the Climate Leadership Plan and move to the Capacity Market in their analysis.  Overall, the 2017 LTO Reference Case load forecast is significantly lower than the 2016 LTO Reference Case. The drop is due to changes in the economic outlook for the province as well as changes to energy efficiency assumptions and adjustments made to the load forecast methodology from the 2016 LTO.