Alberta Wire July 18th, 2017

While not at the same intensity as the previous week, hot weather continued throughout Stampede. Demand fell slightly, down 2.5% week over week with a corresponding price move down ~$0.50/MWh. We are seeing forward prices revert and move lower for the balance of this year and 2018, likely in response to soft settles and lack of pricing activity in spite of the hot summer weather recently setting new peak demands.

AECO spot price for gas bounced back, up to $2.27/GJ or $0.76/GJ week over week. Interestingly, this is the same amount it dropped last week, in response to reduced exports due to a TransCanada pipeline outage at Empress. So we are back to where we were.

The Balancing Pool’s announced consultation on its intent to terminate three PPAs is currently underway. The Balancing Pool has released an internal analysis, posted on its website, stating it expects cancelling the PPAs will save the organization between $475 -581 million. Balancing Pool Chairman, Robert Bhatia said the Balancing Pool is taking a staged approach to cancelling the (PPA) contracts so it can see how the market reacts.